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In the course of the 2016 US presidential election campaign, Viktor Orbán emerged as the sole head of an EU nation to back the Republican candidate. This support was expected, in light of the Hungarian leader's embrace of contentious theories including great replacement ideology and the crackdowns on media freedom. Analysts point out that Hungary's premier more or less pioneered the Make America Great Again campaign, with one-time strategist Steve Bannon hailing Orbán as the "Trump before Trump".

Political Favors In advance of Hungarian Elections

In recent days, amid crucial Hungarian elections only approaching in six months, the US president offered electoral assistance. As Mr Orbán seeks a fifth term in office leading a country he describes as an non-liberal system, his Fidesz party is behind in surveys. A meeting to the US capital resulted in not just some autographed Trump merchandise; it brought highly beneficial pre-election gifts.

Special Treatment and Economic Protections

Even though before instructing European states on the imperative to stop all fuel purchases from Russia, and warning of restrictions against countries continuing to purchase Russian crude, the US president agreed to allow a special exemption for the Hungarian government – the top consumer among EU members of Russian crude. As Orbán stated, the Trump administration also agreed to offer a “financial shield” to Hungary's capital should it encounters any upcoming challenges, particularly since the European Union persists in holding back large sums from the EU to Hungary due to failures to uphold the rule of law.

The particulars of this arrangement are somewhat murky. But the US president has shown his willingness to assist ideological allies when the United States provided a $20bn emergency credit line to Argentina’s far-right president, Argentina's president. Even though Orbán was unable to arrange a campaign-energising Trump visit to the Hungarian capital, the Oval Office meeting still proved a profitable day’s work.

EU Concerns and Geopolitical Stakes

In the corridors of the EU, the US president's move probably highlighted the international consequences of the forthcoming polls, ahead of which the opposition candidate, Péter Magyar, enjoys a clear edge in opinion data. European leaders have learned not to look for steady principles from the Trump administration, and accept the Trump's attempts to undermine the bloc. However Mr Orbán’s exemption – obtained in exchange for an pledge to purchase American natural gas and nuclear power – openly contradicts EU aspirations to phase out Russian oil and gas by the target date.

• From 2022 onward, the top importers in the EU of Russian petroleum, the Hungarian and Slovak nations, have contributed well over £10bn to the Kremlin’s war effort.
• Meanwhile, Budapest has consistently deployed the threat of its veto to stymie progress in Ukraine's bid to join the EU.
• As Europe strives to develop a cohesive plan for backing Ukraine, and strengthening its hand in any upcoming peace talks, the Hungarian leader's alignment with Moscow at the diplomatic table is still a key barrier.

Challenger's Position

Mr Magyar has steered clear of promising a significant change on the war in Ukraine, and directed his efforts on domestic issues, while stressing the need for Hungary to begin operating as a positive member state. Following persistent provocations, EU officials can only remain patient. Orbán's disregard to basic EU values, like the support for minority protections and the independence of civil society institutions, has remained a deeply troubling issue for the bloc. His persistent opposition toward Ukraine could harm its long-term safety.