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Just 48 hours to go.

England's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the perceived challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|